Israel and Hamas are approaching “Ceasefire Phase 2” with more forward motion than at any point since the phased truce began, but the hardest political decisions—Israeli withdrawal terms, Gaza governance, and Hamas’s weapons—are still unresolved.
Still, multiple mediators are signaling that a Phase 2 agreement is expected before the end of 2025 because the monitoring architecture is taking shape, the main external brokers are aligned, and leaders on all sides are trying to lock in guarantees before the calendar—and domestic politics—shifts again.
What is Phase 2
Phase 2 talks are widely framed as the stage meant to negotiate an end to the war, including the return of remaining living hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
Phase 2’s outline includes further Israeli withdrawal, creation of a transitional authority in Gaza, deployment of a multinational security force, Hamas disarmament, and the start of reconstruction.
The Current Progress
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly said he expects the ceasefire to move into the second phase “very shortly,” while describing it as “more difficult” than Phase 1.
Qatar’s prime minister has also said mediators “led by the U.S.” are working to “force the way forward” into Phase 2, while warning that what exists now is closer to a pause than a completed ceasefire without full withdrawal and restored normal movement.
Expected Agreement
A crucial shift is that mediators are increasingly framing the 2025 goal as reaching a political and legal agreement on Phase 2, while acknowledging that full compliance and monitoring will roll out more slowly.
This approach mirrors other complex peace processes, where the peace accord is signed under time pressure, and only later do the parties fully meet conditions such as disarmament or territorial withdrawal.
Donald Trump’s White House has injected an additional time-bound incentive by tying U.S. political capital and security guarantees to reaching a second-phase accord this year.
Reports describe Trump making personal commitments to both Israel and Arab partners that Washington will not allow either side to simply walk away from the deal once signed, a message designed to reassure negotiators that whatever is agreed in 2025 will not evaporate with the next crisis.
Netanyahu’s planned meeting with Trump in December is framed explicitly around closing the gap to a Phase 2 deal, and both sides have an interest in announcing at least a signed framework or “understanding” before year’s end.
For Trump, delivering a formal agreement—even if enforcement remains contested—is a headline diplomatic achievement; for Netanyahu, it diffuses international pressure and reframes the conflict as being on a managed diplomatic track.